{
 "kind": "forecastfarm.farm-wire/v1",
 "generated": "2026-10-22T13:49:51Z",
 "ensemble_cycle": "2026-10-22T06:00Z",
 "enso": {
  "index": "ERA5 MEI",
  "through": "2026-09",
  "value": 3.4,
  "delta_3mo": 0.9,
  "phase": "El Niño",
  "label": "very strong El Niño",
  "series": "mei_era5.csv",
  "provisional": {
   "month": "2026-10",
   "value": 3.83,
   "label": "very strong El Niño"
  }
 },
 "sources": {
  "ec46_cycle": "2026102100",
  "seas5_inits": [
   "2026-05",
   "2026-06",
   "2026-07",
   "2026-08",
   "2026-09",
   "2026-10"
  ],
  "normals": "AgroClim 1991-2025 monthly normals (temperature and rain anomalies)",
  "seas5_reference": "SEAS5 anomalies vs the store's ERA5 hindcast climatology",
  "gefs": "NOAA GEFS 0.25° (31-member ensemble) via AWS Open Data"
 },
 "fields": {
  "temp_anom_2wk_c": "EC-46 ensemble-mean 2 m temperature anomaly, weeks 1-2, deg C, belt land mean",
  "rain_pct_2wk": "EC-46 ensemble-mean rainfall, weeks 1-2, percent of normal",
  "dd_2wk": "energy desks: EC-46 total degree days (base 65 F), weeks 1-2",
  "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": "SEAS5 2 m temperature anomaly, next three whole months, deg C",
  "observed_rain_pct_3mo": "CHIRPS observed rainfall, last three months, percent of normal",
  "gefs_wet_week_pct": "percent of GEFS members with week-1 belt rain >= 25 mm (uncalibrated)",
  "gefs_week1_temp_f": "energy desks: GEFS median week-1 belt mean temperature, deg F"
 },
 "note": "Regional aggregates over growing belts; context for markets and growers, not field-specific agronomic, financial, or trading advice.",
 "desks": [
  {
   "key": "cocoa-west-africa",
   "title": "Cocoa · West Africa",
   "commodity": "Cocoa",
   "contract": "ICE US Cocoa (CC) · ICE London (C)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/cocoa-west-africa",
   "units": "C",
   "stage": [
    "Main-crop harvest"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": -0.22,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 66.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 1.31,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 157.0
  },
  {
   "key": "sugar-india",
   "title": "Sugar · India",
   "commodity": "Sugar (cane)",
   "contract": "ICE Sugar No. 11 (SB) · London White (SW)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/sugar-india",
   "units": "C",
   "stage": [
    "Grand growth"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 0.16,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 83.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 1.75,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 114.0
  },
  {
   "key": "sugar-thailand",
   "title": "Sugar · Thailand",
   "commodity": "Sugar (cane)",
   "contract": "ICE Sugar No. 11 (SB)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/sugar-thailand",
   "units": "C",
   "stage": [
    "Wet-season growth"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 0.8,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 88.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 2.41,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 124.0
  },
  {
   "key": "wheat-srw",
   "title": "Winter Wheat · Chicago SRW",
   "commodity": "Soft red winter wheat",
   "contract": "CBOT Wheat (ZW)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/wheat-srw",
   "units": "F",
   "stage": [
    "Fall seeding window",
    "Emergence & tillering"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 1.41,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 68.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 0.42,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 60.0
  },
  {
   "key": "wheat-hrs",
   "title": "Spring Wheat · Minneapolis HRS",
   "commodity": "Hard red spring wheat",
   "contract": "MGEX Spring Wheat (MWE)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/wheat-hrs",
   "units": "F",
   "stage": [],
   "critical": false,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 0.32,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 97.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 1.96,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 131.0
  },
  {
   "key": "se-us-energy",
   "title": "Southeast U.S. · Power & Gas",
   "commodity": "Cooling & heating demand",
   "contract": "Henry Hub (NG) · SERC power dispatch",
   "kind": "energy",
   "url": "/desks/se-us-energy",
   "units": "F",
   "stage": [
    "Shoulder — fall"
   ],
   "critical": false,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 0.42,
   "dd_2wk": 16.0,
   "dd_2wk_normal": 14.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 0.01,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": null,
   "gefs_week1_temp_f": 68.0,
   "gefs_week1_sd_f": 0.81
  },
  {
   "key": "corn-us",
   "title": "Corn · U.S. Corn Belt",
   "commodity": "Corn (maize)",
   "contract": "CBOT Corn (ZC)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/corn-us",
   "units": "F",
   "stage": [
    "Harvest — freeze & rain watch"
   ],
   "critical": false,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 1.81,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 83.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 0.8,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 71.0
  },
  {
   "key": "coffee-brazil",
   "title": "Coffee · Brazil Arabica",
   "commodity": "Arabica coffee",
   "contract": "ICE Coffee C (KC)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/coffee-brazil",
   "units": "C",
   "stage": [
    "Flowering rains"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": -0.05,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 158.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 1.89,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 85.0
  },
  {
   "key": "soybeans-southamerica",
   "title": "Soybeans · South America",
   "commodity": "Soybeans",
   "contract": "CBOT Soybeans (ZS) · Soymeal (ZM) / Soyoil (ZL)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/soybeans-southamerica",
   "units": "C",
   "stage": [
    "Planting-rains onset",
    "Planting"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": -0.46,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 115.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 0.93,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 93.0
  },
  {
   "key": "wheat-blacksea",
   "title": "Wheat · Black Sea",
   "commodity": "Winter wheat (export)",
   "contract": "CBOT Wheat (ZW) · Euronext Milling Wheat (EBM)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/wheat-blacksea",
   "units": "C",
   "stage": [
    "Fall planting — moisture watch",
    "Establishment"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 1.92,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 46.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 0.96,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 95.0
  },
  {
   "key": "palm-seasia",
   "title": "Palm Oil · Southeast Asia",
   "commodity": "Crude palm oil",
   "contract": "Bursa Malaysia FCPO",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/palm-seasia",
   "units": "C",
   "stage": [
    "Year-round harvest",
    "Peak production"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 0.32,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 85.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 1.3,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 111.0
  },
  {
   "key": "rice-monsoon-asia",
   "title": "Rice · Monsoon Asia",
   "commodity": "Rice",
   "contract": "CBOT Rough Rice (ZR) · Thai/Viet export quotes",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/rice-monsoon-asia",
   "units": "C",
   "stage": [
    "Kharif harvest",
    "Mekong flood & salinity watch"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 0.22,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 100.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 1.81,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 125.0
  },
  {
   "key": "coffee-vietnam",
   "title": "Coffee · Vietnam Robusta",
   "commodity": "Robusta coffee",
   "contract": "ICE Robusta (RC)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/coffee-vietnam",
   "units": "C",
   "stage": [
    "Wet-season cherry development",
    "Harvest"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 0.81,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 51.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": 1.95,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 147.0
  },
  {
   "key": "cotton-us",
   "title": "Cotton · U.S.",
   "commodity": "Upland cotton",
   "contract": "ICE Cotton No. 2 (CT)",
   "kind": "crop",
   "url": "/desks/cotton-us",
   "units": "F",
   "stage": [
    "Open boll — tropical watch",
    "Harvest"
   ],
   "critical": true,
   "temp_anom_2wk_c": 0.78,
   "rain_pct_2wk": 91.0,
   "seas5_temp_anom_3mo_c": -0.16,
   "observed_rain_pct_3mo": 52.0
  }
 ]
}