Hard red spring wheat — the high-protein Minneapolis contract — is planted into the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies in a window that opens in April and slams shut at the end of May: late seeding costs yield and protein premium both. From June the market trades heat at heading; by late August it trades harvest rain.
ENSO state · through Sep 2026
very strong El Niño+3.40 · strengthening · Oct 2026 provisional +3.83
The Forecast Network's ERA5 multivariate ENSO index (the series behind celsius.earth/enso); positive is El Niño-like. Monthly means arrive about six weeks after the month; the provisional month is ERA5T and may still move.
Current stage
Between seasons
Temp, next 2 wk
+0.6°F vs normal
Rain, next 2 wk
97 % of normal
SEAS5, next 3 mo
+3.5°F vs hindcast
Obs rain, 3 mo
131 % of normal
ENSO
very strong El Niño +3.4
The daily sheet · 2026-10-21 to 2026-11-03
Temperature anomaly · °F vs 1991–2025 normal
Rainfall · mm per day, brass dash = normal
Day-by-day ensemble means from the same ECMWF extended run as the weekly ledger — the short-term sheet a desk reads each morning. Days are UTC.
The six-week ledger · ECMWF extended ensemble, 2026-10-21 00z
Temperature anomaly · °F vs 1991–2025 normal
Rainfall · mm per week, brass dash = normal
The belts, first fortnight
Region
Temp anomaly
Rain
% of normal
U.S. Northern Plains
+3.2°F
16 mm
88%
Canadian Prairies
-3.1°F
15 mm
114%
Ensemble-mean weekly aggregates over the desk's growing belts (land cells, production-weighted); whiskers show the ensemble spread carried with the mean — an upper bound for a weekly average. Weeks run from the initialisation date.
The plates · the fortnight on the map
Temperature anomaly · Week 1 · 2026-10-21 → 2026-10-27
Rainfall, percent of normal · Week 1 · 2026-10-21 → 2026-10-27
Temperature anomaly · Week 2 · 2026-10-28 → 2026-11-03
Rainfall, percent of normal · Week 2 · 2026-10-28 → 2026-11-03
Temperature anomaly (°C vs normal)≤ −4−4 to −2−2 to −1−1 to −½near normal+½ to +1+1 to +2+2 to +4> +4
Rainfall, percent of normal (% of normal rain)< 4040–6060–80near normal120–150150–200200–300> 300
EC-46 ensemble-mean weekly fields at 0.25°, painted in the Herbarium stepped ramps over the desk's belts (the oxblood rectangles). Near-normal stays paper; sea and no-data carry no ink; rainfall percent is unpainted where the weekly normal is under 2 mm. Cells are honest — drawn at the data's own resolution.
The seasonal ledger · SEAS5, initialised Oct 2026
Run-to-run · the last 6 initialisations
A forecast that holds its shape across initialisations deserves more weight than one that just appeared.
Latest run, month by month
Month
Temp anom
Rain anom
% of normal
Topsoil moisture anom m³/m³
Oct 2026 ◔
+3.9°F
-21 mm
46%
-0.028
Nov 2026
+1.1°F
+2 mm
108%
-0.006
Dec 2026
+5.0°F
-2 mm
87%
+0.001
Jan 2027
+4.5°F
-1 mm
96%
-0.000
Feb 2027
+3.1°F
+0 mm
102%
+0.001
Mar 2027
+4.4°F
+2 mm
110%
+0.007
Apr 2027
+3.2°F
+5 mm
113%
-0.006
◔ part elapsed. Anomalies vs the store's ERA5 hindcast climatology; percent-of-normal vs the AgroClim 1991–2025 normals. Topsoil moisture is volumetric water in the top 7 cm — negative is drier than the hindcast normal.
Rain that actually fell · CHIRPS, through Dec 2025
Monthly rainfall over the belts · mm, brass dash = 1991–2020 normal
Last 3 months 131% of normal
CHIRPS v3.0 satellite-gauge rainfall sampled at a lattice of land points across the desk's belts, production-weighted. Observed data, not a forecast.
The crop calendar · what this weather means now
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Optimal planting window ★
Emergence & tillering
Heading — heat watch ★
Grain fill
Harvest
★ market-critical stage · the outlined column is the current month.
What the desk watches
April–May fieldwork weather: soil temperature, snowmelt flooding, and rain days decide how much of the window is actually plantable.
Heading-season heat: days above 90 °F in late June–July cut yield fast.
Harvest-window rain and sprout damage from August onward.
Climate drivers
The planting window rides the retreat of the polar jet: a blocked, cold April (more likely under a decaying El Niño) is the classic late-seeding setup; drought carryover in the western Dakotas is the other standing risk.
