✻Forecast FarmClimate · Cultivation · Consequence
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Commodity Desks

The weather that moves markets, read the way a desk reads it: recent rains over the belts that matter, the day-by-day fortnight and six weeks from the ECMWF ensemble, all 31 GEFS members for the next ten days, SEAS5's view of the season, and the crop calendar that says what it all means. One ledger per commodity, every number sourced.

ENSO state · through Sep 2026
very strong El Niño +3.40 · strengthening · Oct 2026 provisional +3.83
The Forecast Network's ERA5 multivariate ENSO index (the series behind celsius.earth/enso); positive is El Niño-like. Monthly means arrive about six weeks after the month; the provisional month is ERA5T and may still move.
Cocoa · West Africa
ICE US Cocoa (CC) · ICE London (C) · Main-crop harvest
Temp next 2 wk
-0.2°C
Rain next 2 wk
66% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+1.3°C
Sugar · India
ICE Sugar No. 11 (SB) · London White (SW) · Grand growth
Temp next 2 wk
+0.2°C
Rain next 2 wk
83% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+1.8°C
Sugar · Thailand
ICE Sugar No. 11 (SB) · Wet-season growth
Temp next 2 wk
+0.8°C
Rain next 2 wk
88% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+2.4°C
Winter Wheat · Chicago SRW
CBOT Wheat (ZW) · Fall seeding window; Emergence & tillering
Temp next 2 wk
+2.5°F
Rain next 2 wk
68% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+0.8°F
Spring Wheat · Minneapolis HRS
MGEX Spring Wheat (MWE) · Between seasons
Temp next 2 wk
+0.6°F
Rain next 2 wk
97% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+3.5°F
Southeast U.S. · Power & Gas
Henry Hub (NG) · SERC power dispatch · Shoulder — fall
Temp next 2 wk
+0.8°F
DD next 2 wk
16 vs 14
GEFS week 1
68°F σ 0.8
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+0.0°F
Corn · U.S. Corn Belt
CBOT Corn (ZC) · Harvest — freeze & rain watch
Temp next 2 wk
+3.3°F
Rain next 2 wk
83% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+1.4°F
Coffee · Brazil Arabica
ICE Coffee C (KC) · Flowering rains
Temp next 2 wk
-0.1°C
Rain next 2 wk
158% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+1.9°C
Soybeans · South America
CBOT Soybeans (ZS) · Soymeal (ZM) / Soyoil (ZL) · Planting-rains onset; Planting
Temp next 2 wk
-0.5°C
Rain next 2 wk
115% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+0.9°C
Wheat · Black Sea
CBOT Wheat (ZW) · Euronext Milling Wheat (EBM) · Fall planting — moisture watch; Establishment
Temp next 2 wk
+1.9°C
Rain next 2 wk
46% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+1.0°C
Palm Oil · Southeast Asia
Bursa Malaysia FCPO · Year-round harvest; Peak production
Temp next 2 wk
+0.3°C
Rain next 2 wk
85% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+1.3°C
Rice · Monsoon Asia
CBOT Rough Rice (ZR) · Thai/Viet export quotes · Kharif harvest; Mekong flood & salinity watch
Temp next 2 wk
+0.2°C
Rain next 2 wk
100% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+1.8°C
Coffee · Vietnam Robusta
ICE Robusta (RC) · Wet-season cherry development; Harvest
Temp next 2 wk
+0.8°C
Rain next 2 wk
51% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
+2.0°C
Cotton · U.S.
ICE Cotton No. 2 (CT) · Open boll — tropical watch; Harvest
Temp next 2 wk
+1.4°F
Rain next 2 wk
91% of nml
Wet-week odds
—
SEAS5 next 3 mo
-0.3°F

Wire computed 2026-10-22T13:49:51Z · GEFS ensemble 2026-10-22T06:00Z · forecasts are ensemble means over each desk's belts; temperatures in °F on U.S. desks, °C elsewhere. Wet-week odds: the share of GEFS members giving the belts ≥ 25 mm in week 1. The whole board is also published as machine-readable JSON.